Projeção da oferta de professores de matemática, física, química e biologia para educação básica no Brasil até 2028

Abstract

Population projections are important tools for planning and evaluating public policies. This study proposes a discussion about teachers supply for basic education in physics, chemistry, mathematics and biology, by using demographic methods of manpower projections to estimate the supply of these professionals up to 2028. The availability of individualized data of students from the 2009 Census of Higher Education, and teachers from the 2007 Census of Basic Education has allowed the improvement of the projection model adopted by using a longitudinal study of the students school history and teachers careers. Studies about teachers stock and the input and output components of the labor market contributed to the formulation of the hypotheses to create the projected scenarios. The projections exercises performed in this study aim to think about the role of public policies on teacher training, pointing to pathways for a tangible increase in the supply of new professionals for the job market by analyzing different scenarios and levels of the indicators studied. The choice of some scenarios in the projections has identified the courses of physics and mathematics as those in which the increase in the future availability of teachers present more difficulties compared to biology and chemistry. Additionally, the results show that an improvement in completion rates were also more promising than increases in the proportion of new students, especially regarding the course of physics, which presents a higher deficiency of supplying professionals for the labor market.